Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Assistant Prof., Department of Statistics Group, Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, Kharazmi University, Karaj, Tehran, Iran
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Faculty of Law, Theology, and Political Science, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3
Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics and Organizational Management, Strategic Studies Research Institute, Judiciary Research Institute, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
Objective: This study delves into the connection between geographic elements like weather and climate variables and criminal behavior, a crucial topic in criminological research. It acknowledges the possible increase in criminal activities due to climate fluctuations and global warming concerns, along with their geographic, climatic, and economic impacts. Consequently, the study aims to elucidate how temperature affects crime rates using diverse criminological models.
Method: This research examines the influence of temperature fluctuations on violent and property crime rates, utilizing various statistical methods, including time series regression and mixed-effects linear models. Data spanning from 2018 to 2021, gathered from 28 provinces by the Judicial System's Statistical Center, is employed. The aim is to establish if temperature variations hold statistical significance in relation to crime rates and to gauge the extent of this association.
Findings: Based on the conducted tests, temperature has a statistically significant effect on violent crimes, with a10-degree Celsius increase in temperature associated with a 0.9-unit increase in the occurrence of these types of crimes. Conversely, property crimes, including both violent and non-violent thefts, increase during the latter half of the year, particularly in the colder seasons.
Conclusion: The research aligns with the general strain theory and routine activities theory, indicating a linear relationship between temperature increase and rising violent crimes. To address these crimes, changes in policing, management, and environmental policies are essential. Additionally, property crimes follow an economic shock model, necessitating economic planning, especially in terms of temporary employment, to reduce them during colder seasons.
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